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Teachers in short supply as Baby Boomers leave the profession

Posted on 6 May 2018

As you may be aware, CaSPA has been working with AITSL in recent years to obtain current and informative data for workforce planning. CaSPA has been told that this information is readily available for a variety of reasons, including the reluctance of Tertiary Institutions to provide Government with accurate data about thier intakes, retention and graduate information.This is an interesting reflection given the pressure on schools to provide this same data in great detail and on an annual basis so it can be reported on the MySchool website and the like. While one may ask why the Tertiary sector is not held to similar levels of accountability it is interesting to read articles such as the following [SMH by Eryk Bagshaw on 18 April 2018] which predicts significant employment opportunities for teachers in the coming years.

Future farmers, nurses and teachers are in for a jobs bonanza in the next six years as millions of baby-boomers retire to make way for a new generation of workers in rapidly expanding industries.

Free trade agreements, an ageing population and an influx hundreds of thousands of new young migrants are expected to provide for extraordinary opportunities in the three sectors, as manufacturing also transitions from the struggling car industry to "Made in Australia" equipment and pharmaceuticals.

The landmark report by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research will be released on the same day the Coalition is expected to break through the million-jobs target it set when it came to office.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will note the results from London, where global economic development is on the agenda for the Commonwealth Heads of Government.
"We are keeping jobs onshore by ensuring that the economy remains strong," he said.
But good news for some will be bad news for others, with the report indicating workers may want to reconsider planning a future in retail, mining or the public service.
Weak wage growth will stunt spending in shops, the final chapter of the mining boom will limit resources opportunities and the constraints of returning the May budget back to surplus will halt employment growth in the public sector.
Researchers from Monash and Victoria universities used modelling developed over three decades to forecast labor force growth will be stronger than it is at present.
An extra 1.9 million people will be employed by 2024 at an average growth of 1.8 per cent per year, compared to 1.4 per cent between 2011-2016.
But the growth in the standard of living - gross domestic product per capita - is expected to halve, from 1.8 per cent this year to 0.8 per cent by 2021, due to stagnant wage growth and an ageing workforce.
In 2024, 35 per cent of the working-age population will be 55 years or older, up from 33 per cent today.
The unemployment rate, which is likely to remain steady at around 5.5 per cent when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases its figures on Thursday, is expected to hover around the same mark until the middle of the next decade.
Authors Chandra Shah and economist Janine Dixon urged the government to direct resources to where they were most needed and for students to map a path to future opportunities.

They analysed more than 97 occupation groups and 87 industries to find that a quarter of all workers will be employed as professionals by 2024, with 440,000 teachers making up the largest professional occupation, followed by accountants.

The National Disability and Insurance Scheme will continue to fuel record levels of employment growth, adding a further 119,000 health care workers by 2024 to become the economy's largest sector, employing 1.8 million people.
At the same time, the National Broadband Network is expected to keep workers in IT, and the country will need another 100,000 cleaners and laundry workers to make up for people leaving or retiring from the profession.
Younger farmers will have to make up for older-hands departing the paddock, as record harvests and free-trade agreements open local producers to the world and the Australian dollar depreciates.
"Farmer and farm managers have a much older workforce than most other occupations, which means it has a relatively high replacement rate," the report found.
More than 122,000 employees will need to be found to make up for the expected growth in agriculture as a whole, which now goes further than farming into agribusiness, food security and technology.
"People my age would be surprised what agriculture is," said 24-year-old University of Sydney PhD student Emily White.
"I never expected there to be many jobs when I started my degree, but they need to get better at selling its future. It's not just cattle, it's maintaining fresh produce, increasing wool production."
"It will impact everyone because everyone needs to eat right?" added fellow agriculture PhD candidate, 23-year-old Ingrid Zamora.
The report found that free trade agreements would fuel a global preference for "Made in Australia" products but manufacturing won't find its comeback on the floor of historic car plants.
It will be in specialised equipment, expected to grow 6 per cent a year, and basic chemical products and pharmaceuticals.
"People are predicting a lot of doom and gloom in terms of manufacturing," said Professor Shah. "Our study showed there is still potential jobs in new kinds of manufacturing coming through."
Retail, once Australia's largest employer, will suffer due to a "stagnation in wage growth and a gradual re-allocation of the household budget towards services, utilities and health care."
Energy bills have been growing at up to six times the average pay rise, according to the ABS, as health and education costs further shut the wallets of shoppers by increasing at twice the rate of inflation.
Its total share of employment will fall further from 10.6 per cent to 9.7 per cent by 2024.
Eryk Bagshaw is an economics reporter for the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, based in Parliament House

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